Indian renewable energy blogger Ritesh Pothan of Natural Group has released the list of five predictions for the nation's PV market in 2012. Topping the list, Pothan predicts that off-grid PV applications will increase in volume, particularly the commercial rooftop segment, due to accelerated depreciation and increasing power costs.
Pothan also predicts that engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) prices will average between INR 70/kW (USD 1.26/kW) and INR 90/kW (USD 1.62/kW) in 2012, that renewable energy credits will fall and that PV plant consolidations will begin in 2013 due to discoms backing out of power purchase agreements (PPAs).
Too many EPC players to lead to consolidation
Finally, Pothan predicts that small EPC contractors will quit the grid-tied PV market and either go out of business or switch to off-grid PV and solar thermal.
Pothan cites PPA prices falling below INR 80/kW (USD 1.44/kW) as a factor in the move to off-grid applications, with too many organizations pursuing PPAs. Natural Group states that there is currently an excess of EPC providers, and states that those without the financial security of being backed by an international corporation are in greater danger of failure.
Source: solar server
