Grid-connected wind capacity installed in 2012 was 48.4 GW globally, up 19% year-on-year (YoY). Looking forward, MAKE Consulting (link), believes that in spite of some economic and regulatory uncertainty, the long term growth story for wind is intact, with installed MWs expected to show CAGR to 2020 of 4.6% per annum.
However, this does mask a certain amount of volatility in growth rates between 2013 and 2020. We expect that 2013 installations will be down by 7% YoY, with growth in AsiaPacific, Offshore, Latin America, Northern Europe, Middle East/Africa offset by declines in Southern and Eastern Europe and North America, reflecting the impact of regulatory upheaval in these markets. Order flow at the end of 2012 for announced conditional and firm orders was down by 13%, reflecting our expectations for a weaker 2013, but pricing in all regions has stabilized.
2014 is likely to be another record year, with installations up 17% YoY, with growth in all markets to offset a slight decline in EU installations, caused mostly by weakness in Southern European markets. After 2014, global growth will flatten off in 2015-16, but should accelerate again in 2017 with a CAGR of 5.3% expected in 2017-2020, as the LCOE for wind drops below grid parity.
Orders are expected to recover sharply in 2013, reflecting the prospect of a record year for installations in 2014. A focus on restoring OEM profitability may give turbine pricing a positive bias but the outlook for prices to 2015 is likely to be somewhat mixed. Prices for MMW turbines (>2.5MW) are likely to see increases, however turbines prices in the sub 2.5MW category may remain under pressure.
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